Thursday, September 26, 2013

Robalini's Week 4 NFL Picks

Here's my results for Week 3
W-L-T record: 6-8
Season record: 16-17-2

San Francisco 49ers (-3) over St. Louis Rams
Look for the 49ers to rebound after two humiliating losses with a drubbing of the Rams.

Cincinnati Bengals (-4) over Cleveland Browns
The Browns looked good last week, but it's a fluke.

Indianapolis Colts (-7 1/2) over Jacksonville Jaguars
The Jags are looking as bad as everyone thought.  Maybe they'll be better when they're the Los Angeles Jaguars.

Seattle Seahawks (-2 1/2) over Houston Texans
The Texans appear to be a paper tiger, and the Seahawks are the team that will prove it.

Chicago Bears (+3) over Detroit Lions
The Lions look like they're cursed for bad luck another year.

New York Jets (+4 1/2) over Tennessee Titans
The Jets, with Geno Smith as QB, look much better than expected.  Even when they lose, they lose with style.  Expect at least another close loss.

Philadelphia Eagles (+11) over Denver Broncos
Call me a masochist, but there's no way Peyton Manning can keep covering these ridiculous point spreads.  Right?

Atlanta Falcons (-1) over New England Patriots
Believe it or not, this game had even points at one time, because of pro-Patriot bias (deserved) among bettors.  But the 2013 Patriots are (despite their 3-0 start) clearly not the Pats we know, and the Falcons will prove that at home.

To check Las Vegas odds, The Konformist recommends

Sunday, September 22, 2013

Robalini's Week 3 NFL Picks Addendum

Miami Dolphins (-2) over Atlanta Falcons
I usually don't add picks after making my final postings, but at -2 and an even payout, I can't resist picking the Dolphins...

To check Las Vegas odds, The Konformist recommends

Thursday, September 19, 2013

Robalini's Week 3 NFL Picks

Here's my results for Week 2
W-L-T record: 5-5-1
Season record: 10-9-2

Kansas City Chiefs (+3 1/2) over Philadelphia Eagles
Look for Andy Reid to at least keep it within a field goal (if not outright win) in his return to Philly.

San Diego Chargers (+3 1/2) over Tennessee Titans
The Chargers may indeed be much better now the curse of Norv Turner is removed.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+7 1/2) over New England Patriots
The Bucs are better than their record suggest, and the Patriots are worse.

Houston Texans (-2 1/2) over Baltimore Ravens
The Ravens rebounded in Week Two, but will fall back against the Texans.

Dallas Cowboys (-3 1/2) over St. Louis Rams
Look for the Cowboys to dominate at home this week.

Washington Redskins (-1 1/2) over Detroit Lions
The Lions are already beat up, and RGIII should return with a roar at home.

Green Bay Packers (-2) over Cincinnati Bengals
I'll take Aaron Rodgers if you take less than a field goal.

Carolina Panthers (-1) over New York Giants
I still think the Panthers are undervalued this year and expect Cam Newton to prove it at home.

Indianapolis Colts (+10 1/2) over San Francisco 49ers
Look for Andrew Luck to keep it close in his return to the Bay Area.

Jacksonville Jaguars (+20) over Seattle Seahawks
I don't care how bad the Jags are: give me 20 points in an NFL game and I'll take it.

Buffalo Bills (+2 1/2) over New York Jets
I think the Bills looks vastly improved this year, and they will deliver against the Jets.

Chicago Bears (-2 1/2) over Pittsburgh Steelers
The Bears offensive line has improved, and their defense has maintained quality.  Neither is true about Pittsburgh.

Oakland Raiders (+15 1/2) over Denver Broncos
The Raiders are competitive this year.  15 1/2 points?  Great bet, even with the Peyton Manning factor.

To check Las Vegas odds, The Konformist recommends

Thursday, September 12, 2013

Robalini's Week 2 NFL Picks

Here's my results for Week 1
W-L-T record: 5-4-1

New York Jets (+13) over New England Patriots
Thirteen points?  That was the line Monday night, and I jumped on it.  For all their problems, the Jets deserve more credit than that, and the Pats don't look quite so dominating this year either.

San Diego Chargers (+8) over Philadelphia Eagles
Another too high spread.  The Charger are a good bet.

Tennessee Titans (+9) over Houston Texans
Dog number 3.  Nine points are too much.

Carolina Panthers (-3) over Buffalo Bills
I got this on even pay rather -110 at the Station Casino.  Cam Newton and the Panthers are oddly overlooked so far this year.

St. Louis Rams (+7) over Atlanta Falcons
Dog number 4.  The Falcons should win, but expect a close game.

Washington Redskins (+7 1/2) over Green Bay Packers
Dog number 5.  Expect the Skins to at least cover.

Kansas City Chiefs (-2 1/2) over Dallas Cowboys
The Chiefs, everyone's team to watch, is still worth watching.

Minnesota Vikings (+6 1/2) over Chicago Bears
Dog number 6.  Expect the Vikings to at least keep it close.

New Orleans Saints (-3) over Tampa Bay Buccaneers
I'm riding the Saints this year.

Detroit Lions (-1) over Arizona Cardinals
The Lions are the superior team here.

Denver Broncos (-4 1/2) over New York Giants
Expect Manning to crush in the battle of the Mannings.

To check Las Vegas odds, The Konformist recommends

Sunday, September 8, 2013

Robalini's Week 1 NFL Picks

New Orleans Saints (-3) over Atlanta Falcons
Look for the Saints revenge year to start great at home against the Falcons.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3) over New York Jets
The Bucs are a lot better than they're getting credit for.  The Jets are as bad as they say.

Kansas City Chiefs (-3.5) over Jacksonville Jaguars
A good warmup game for the up and coming Chiefs.

Cincinnati Bengals (+3) over Chicago Bears
I expect the Bengals to rise in 2013 and the Bears to fall, so this is a good test game to see how right I am.

Oakland Raiders (+10.5) over Indianapolis Colts
I passed on this game last Sunday, but the point spread kept rising and now is too tempting.  Luck will have a sophomore slump of sorts, and though they should win, it will be close.

Arizona Cardinals (+5) over St. Louis Rams
The Cards have the same defense plus Carson Palmer, so they are a good bet with 5 points.

Green Bay Packers (+5) over San Francisco 49ers
Give Aaron Rodgers five points?  I'll take that!

Dallas Cowboys (-3) over New York Giants
I'm putting my money where my mouth is on backing Tony Romo and the Cowboys to win the NFC East.

Houston Texans (-4) over San Diego Chargers
Whatever problems the Texans have are nothing compared to the Chargers.

To check Las Vegas odds, The Konformist recommends

Thursday, September 5, 2013

Robalini's 2013 NFL Football Predictions (Plus Opening Game Pick)


NFC North

The Bears will regret firing Lovie Smith.  The Vikings made the playoffs thanks to a ridiculous performance by Adrian Peterson which should not be repeated: even with Christian Ponder improving, expect them to go down.  Yes, the Lions were undisciplined and underperforming in 2012, but they made perhaps the best acquisition of the year with Reggie Bush at running back.  In any case, the Packers, led by Aaron Rodgers, should dominate this division.

NFC South

The Bucs would be competing in nearly every other division, but it the NFC South, expect them to go last.  The Falcons were a play away from the Super Bowl last year, but rather than motivating improvement, expect them to have the choker label stuck in their head.  Cam Newton may not have had the Fantasy Football points last year like he did in 2011, but he's quietly developing into a smart QB with talent, and expect the Panthers to get a wild card.  That leaves the Saints, who have the 2013 MVP at QB in Drew Brees, the return of the best coach in football with Sean Payton, and a talented team with a chip on its shoulder for feeling screwed by the NFL last year.

NFC West

The Cardinals now have Carson Palmer, which should improve them, but they are still in a really tough division.  The Rams have great coaching, great defense and an offense that is conservative but smart, but that won't be enough this year in the division either.  In the end, I'll pick both the Seahawks and the 49ers to make the playoffs, with Seattle winning the division simply because Colin Kaepernick may not be so injury free playing his style over 16 games.

NFC East

These teams are pretty much all the same: talented but not talented enough to be champions.  This will be a learning year for the Eagles under a new system, while the Giants have done little to improve themselves.  The team with the best upside is the Redskins, but as that upside is tied to RGIII and his health, I have my doubts this year.  So I'm going with the Cowboys, simply because Tony Romo will be the most consistent in a mediocre division.

Division Winners:
Green Bay Packers, New Orleans Saints, Seattle Seahawks, Dallas Cowboys

Wild Cards: San Francisco 49ers, Carolina Panthers

NFC Championship:
New Orleans Saints over Green Bay Packers



AFC North

In theory, the Browns should eventually improve, but not this year.  The Steelers are too old and too beat down to make another run.  The Ravens will miss two of the greatest defensive players ever leaving their team.  That leaves, by default, the quietly consistent Bengals as division winners.

AFC South

The Jags and Titans: nope.  The Colts and Andrew Luck should not be so lucky this year with a tougher schedule, though they could be a wild card given the overall weakness of the AFC.  That leaves, by default, the talented but underperforming Texans.

AFC West

This is one division which may be stronger than given credit.  The Chargers, sadly, have fired Norv Turner way too late, and now their once immense talent has been sucked away.  The Raiders may be a surprise this year, especially if Terrelle Pryor delivers.  The Chiefs would be the surprise team to look for if every NFL expert wasn't declaring them to be the surprise team to look for.  Still, the Broncos should be the class of the division under Peyton Manning once again.

AFC East

Bills, Dolphins, Jets: moving on.  For all the problems facing the Patriots, they still should coast in this division.

Division Winners

Cincinnati Bengals, Houston Texans, Denver Broncos, New England Patriots

Wild Cards
Kansas City Chiefs, Indianapolis Colts

AFC Championship:
Denver Broncos over Kansas City Chiefs

Super Bowl

New Orleans Saints over Denver Broncos

Bonus Pick: NFL Kickoff Opener

Baltimore Ravens (+9) over Denver Broncos

I just predicted the Ravens to miss the playoffs and the Broncos to make the Super Bowl, but nine points is still nine points.  That's how much the Ravens were getting Sunday when I placed my bet, and though the spread has dropped to eight, it's still a good bet for Baltimore to at least keep it close.

To check Las Vegas odds, The Konformist recommends